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**Update (10/22/09):
Of course, this post was written over a year ago, before self promoters like celebrities, bands, restaurants, politicians etc got on Twitter, which opened the window for a lot of 'normal' people to derive value from what was often nothing more than a collection of marketing messages. What has happened is that this mechanism has cause Twitter to evovle into the massive, mainstream medium we know today. In my defense, it's hard to predict that everyone has a little desire for self promotion, and that the sum total of all of that would be well received. So while part of what I was saying was wrong - mostly what I was saying was right. That is, the really interesting part of all this has become the people who have been able to structure that data - whether the early movers like
StockTwits, my own company
buzzd, or now
Google and
Bing. And its getting pretty interesting!
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10/3/08
Historically I start this blog with a sentence about how much I like the company I have addressed my open letter to. But Twitter, you aren’t going to hear that from me. If my blog was about
innovation for the sake of the tech community, then I might be able to say how much I like you. You are beloved by a community of early adopters who also happen to have career incentives for broadcasting their interactions with the world.
But don’t be fooled. I don’t like you, and neither do my friends. We aren’t tempted by the promise of self promotion, so to us, Twitter seems kinda useless. Your website isn’t slick. Your “social network” is diluted by
Johnny Networker, follow/refollow politics, and username aliases. You provide attention seekers with an excuse to get their name out with less effort and less substance. If I wanted to communicate among friends, there are many better (private) forums. If not solely to build a name in an industry, then why microblog? I am trying to call upon a criticism that others have executed better – that
Twitter Isnt For Normal People, so I wont expand any further. So if I have such beef with Twitter, what is the point of this 'open letter'? Is it an open letter to cease and desist? Is Twitter doomed?
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Twitter is NOT doomed. You do have something here, but its not obvious, and you don’t seem to be focused on it. So what is good about Twitter, for a guy like me?
At first glance, nothing (!).
For the average person, there is far more value in communicating privately, and little to gain from communicating publicly. Better to give an example: I have this friend named
Lucas. He loves football, and steak, and the Beastie Boys, and Terminator movies and …well lets just get general and say ‘popular things’. One of his favorite things to say is how much he ‘loves the mainstream’, which I in turn love him for. He is a great example of Joe internet user. He has TONS of friends, and he is my feasibility test for any new technology. Would Lucas use it? Does Twitter pass the Lucas test? Lets try it:
Does Lucas want to tweet about him listening to ‘Fight For Your Right to Party’ for the one thousandth time? Does he have an unfulfilled need to opine publicly that Terminator 2 is a good movie? Hell no! Anyone he is friends with already knows that he these things are awesome, agree they are awesome, so its just not worth talking about, particularly over the internet (nerd!). Lucas doesn’t want an avatar, or to set some kind of
new internet meme, his persona is obvious to the real world. He has enough trouble remembering to call real friends on their birthdays (because he has lots and is cool). But Lucas is no Luddite – so he does matter, and you should care what he thinks. Turns out he spends a lot of his free time on the internet - on Facebook, various well known media content sites like Citysearch, Hulu, ESPN.com, and other popular online services such as Ticketmaster, SeamlessWeb, Pandora, etc. And he dabbles in quirky internet services like
woot and
iConcertCal and if he knew it existed, probably
a Facebook birthday reminder app as long as they
(1) get him straight to what he wants and (2) when he gets there, the thing he sees seems instantly useful. I assure you, that is a high barometer, but that’s really the beauty of the Lucas test. Lucas really doesn’t care how good your developers are or if you are funded or if
Arrington linked to you. To figure out how Twitter can be useful to Lucas, we need to reconsider what Twitter really is.
***Twitter is an open-ended wiki for real people’s ideas and thoughtsSo how do I demonstrate this idea? Say Lucas is looking to buy a new phone, and wants to compare the iPhone and Blackberry. I know this may be hard to swallow, but Lucas doesn’t exactly subscribe to RSS feeds for Engadget and Gizmodo. His first go-to is a Google search. But what if I told him that you can
search on Twitter to see everyday people comparing the two phones. Or that people often
post their fantasy football picks. He *might* find that information useful (though probably still wouldn’t think to look there). At least in this world, Twitter has theoretical utility to him, instead of being entirely NOT useful.
Now… getting him to contribute would be infinitely harder. But when I think about it, he does do this already. On ESPN.com, when they have a
user poll, he votes. He shares his thoughts with the world for free because
he appreciates the data it creates and he wants to understand the dataset it belongs to. So perhaps that sports poll data is valuable… In fact, there is
a company that mines and analyzes and yes, even
sells that data.
Here is my point. The primary purpose of publishing versus communicating privately is adding your thoughts to the great pool of human knowledge - sharing ideas, opinions and thoughts. By publicly storing interpersonal communication, you turn it into data. Think of Twitter as a sloppy, open-ended wiki of blurbs, habits, opinions, activities. So why doesn’t the average person appreciate this depository of information?
***You need to redefine what sharing on Twitter means to peopleThe way Twitter is used now, much of what is shared is not useful. This medium has been built around the needs of a very unique and small community of early adopters. Twitter is not just a place where I can tweet about my iPhone. It’s a place where
thousands of people are tweeting about iPhones, which is a different thing entirely. To reach the mass market, two things need to happen:
(
1) People need to learn what the medium is useful for (outside of self promotion) – aggregating information through public communication.
(2) People need easier ways to track the big picture on TwitterImagine if people wrote tweets knowing that they would be analyzed; if there were more ways to analyse, sort, organize, discover, compare, dissect, graph, measure, contextualize and understand this amalgamation of thoughts. The key to Twitter’s future is context and meaning. There is just too much data out there, and not enough synthesis of that data. I have
made this point before (geeks: think Semantic Web/Web 3.0). Because why else publish?
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All this in mind, how do you shape Twitter going forward? The site has enough problems just keeping up with its own traffic. I realize my head is in the clouds. But with no good business model, shouldn’t you at least be aiming in a cardinal direction (up!), no matter how far down the road? At this point, it is this blogger’s opinion that Twitter might do well to decrease focus on growing traffic and building its community of early adopters. Third parties like Summize have been quick to home in on what Twitter has been missing, and
Twitter was wise to snatch up Summize. Summize was ‘Answer v1.0’ to the question ‘What is the point of Twitter’? Remember, my point is that communication alone is not the point of Twitter, because there are always better means for doing so (instant message, chat rooms, email, facebook status updates, or other means of communication through similarly entrenched and ‘traditional social networks’). Why else publish? So what is in store for ‘Answer v2.0’, and beyond?
I will give a good example. My very good friend Vinicius Vacanti was in line at Shake Shack, a famous burger joint in NYC with an infamous (long) line. Two guys behind him were talking about how they just don’t see the point in Twitter. How they would never use it. Then one of them interjected “The only useful thing I ever saw come out of Twitter, was some crazy guy who had
graphed the Twitter posts describing the line here at Shake Shack to show the best time of day to go”. He was referring to Vinicius’ own post (!!!). Besides being serendipitous, this was something special. It was a couple of regular guys finding use in Twitter. The ‘data’ in the tweets got lost in the mosh pit of too much information. But because Vinicius did the work to analyze and graphically represent what was happening, it made it to lunch line conversation for these average Joes. Suddenly Twitter was useful. This idea is already being
noticed, but nobody is very smart about it yet. Im sure people would love to see (and participate) in metrics about the election, the federal bailout debate, etc. Watching
the tag #factcheck on Twitter during the Vice Presidential debates, it was interesting to see how quickly everyone jumped on VP candidate Joe Biden for (correctly) using the word ‘Bosniacs’, and then how the tide turned when everyone realized that it was a real word. Goes to show you that there is a lot of junk out there, but another good thing about publishing publicly is that it promotes accountability, which not ironically was the idea behind the #factcheck tag itself.
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But what about growing the community? A lot of the discussion about Twitter revolves around
the Rogers Adoption curve. It is true, if you are focused on growing Twitter today, then the most important challenge is bridging the ‘Adoption Gap’. But the current version of Twitter doesn’t make any money, and doesn’t seem likely to ever make any money in its current form. So why grow something that loses money? Focus on how it is that you will make money (suggestions to follow). Don’t focus on how many users you have. Who knows what cultural meme will help your technology jump that gap, and lead everyday people to want to contribute. What if Twitter becomes the next platform for American Idol voting? You will bridge the gap in your adoption curve faster than you can blink, and you will be wishing you had spent more time thinking about what your product means rather than trying to build your (fickle) community of users. As long as you focus on your differentiator, (in this case the public data) then you are aiming to monetize on a mission statement instead of a social fad.
So how do you monetize? Make sense of the data you are creating, and make people pay you for it. To get any traction, you will certainly need to make a few changes to the product. Some ideas:
A ‘smart box’ on the sidebar that, similar to Gmail advertisements, provides feedback on the things you write about. Example: I tweet ‘Bush[thumbs down]’ – and in the box I see a chronological graph of people ranking the word Bush, or the box tells me “people who agree with you also said ___”, or the box tells me “number of times ‘Bush’ has been tweeted in the last 24 hours”, or the box provides a “ranked list of the top people tweeting the word ‘Bush’”, etc. Think stock traders using Twitter. Think instant rewards for sharing your opinion.
Guest accounts/anonymous tweets: You want as much contribution as possible, with as little startup cost. Get Joe Internet to contribute. Guest tweets would have to go through a spam filter first, perhaps.
The ability to Flag objectionable tweets: registered users should be able to provide anonymous feedback (red flag) to both Twitter the service and the person is misusing the right to tweet. When a tweet is flagged, other users can see that it has been marked as such, and it is removed from the data. Misuse of flagging can result in the termination of your username and removal of your flags.
Value Tags to help quantify/qualify data: add to your existing tags (@, #) a Thumbs up/down (+/-) which you attach to a word or phrase that can assign it a binary value.
Geotagging tweets to attribute a geographic value to the data that is being collected.
Ability to submit anonymous demographic information to enhance the data being created (optional, create incentive for doing this)
Semantic understanding of free-form text. This is OBVIOUSLY very difficult, but it would be really cool if a computer could begin to aggregate, classify and interpret opinions, and create discrete data. Twitter data would become one of the best single sources of information on the internet.
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The goal being that eventually you could send anonymous, smart statistics to marketers, the media, hedge funds, whoever wants data about what people think. Make the business model this: analysis, and underneath:
Powered by Twitter AnalyticsThe key point I hope to have made is that the only differentiator for Twitter is that the service makes it easy to share one’s thoughts with the world. The only (financial) value in being able to do so is that people will pay to know and measure what those thoughts are. In its current form, Twitter only helps you understand tweets on an individual basis. In aggregate, tweets will tell a much more meaningful story.